And a divided party rarely wins the presidency, as Jimmy Carter found in 1980." I think he faces a tougher opponent in DeSantis than anybody in 2016. "Trump may also be hurt by a bruising 2024 primary contest for the nomination. "Trump carries several disadvantages into the 2024 race that may hurt his prospect of winning Independent votes-his indictments (and the prospect of more to come), the unpopularity of the abortion decision effected via his Supreme Court nominees, and memories of what happened on January 6, 2021," Morgan said. Recent results by YouGov also suggest the indictment may have had a limited effect, with Trump clinching a percentage-point lead in a head-to-head poll against Biden in its survey of 1,500 adults (although the pair came out evenly split among 1,303 registered voters).Įven if Trump might win some support among those who have questioned the indictment, Iwan Morgan, professor emeritus of United States studies at University College London, told Newsweek that it was important to consider the case among the many other challenges and legal woes the former president faces. "Those models have been overtaken by approaches based on partisanship, and we can expect that all to head in the obvious direction in each party if we're confronted by two established party leaders in battle." Has Trump's Indictment Harmed His Figures?Īs is clear from Trump's Truth Social post, his indictment and subsequent arraignment in Florida this week appear to have galvanized him further.Īccording to the latest polling conducted by CBS, it appears his supporters may feel the same way, with 76 percent of the respondents-likely GOP primary voters- saying they are more concerned that the indictment is politically motivated. "Even the more successful models that predict election results based on economic performance tend to deploy data from only a few months (as much as six) before the election, not a year or more earlier," Herbert said. presidency, told Newsweek of a number of flaws in polling this far ahead of the 2024 election. Jon Herbert, a senior politics lecturer at Keele University, in England, with expertise in the U.S.
The reliability of any kind of presidential polling this far ahead in the race invites a degree of skepticism. L-R: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS/AFP via Getty Images Trump has said his 2024 poll numbers show he's far ahead of the president. Former President Donald Trump (L) delivers remarks outside Trump National Golf Club on June 13, 2023, in Bedminster, New Jersey, and President Joe Biden points at the League of Conservation Voters Annual Capital Dinner, n Washington, D.C, on June 14, 2023.
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